Will the price of bread be like that of gasoline?

Due to the advance of the war and the lack of vision and foresight in the medium term, it is expected that it will go quickly until the suffocation of the poorest and the embrace of the immense middle class begins .

Two months of Russia’s war on Ukraine has so far added a tragic toll of death, refugees, destruction and complete uncertainty about the end of it all. And what is happening in Eastern Europe is, more and more, perplexity at the European summit.

“Do you want to see that now the price of bread will be like that of petrol?” one of my neighbors in Lisbon asked jokingly.

Just kidding, just kidding, until the end of March (the war started on the 24th), the price hike seemed, they said, only bloody in energy and food commodities, but in April it broke through the red line that central banks feared and they did not say: inflation has started to contaminate other prices. It is no exaggeration to say that high inflation has arrived.

In Europe, the official discourse has tried in recent weeks, since the outbreak of the conflict, to control the course of the inflationary narrative: it has insisted that it must be temporary, that next year it will not shouldn’t be like that.

The European Central Bank (ECB) has led the way, with as much programmatic caution or “consideration” as possible, but it’s May and the picture is in sight. It is no longer possible to predict the course of inflation, nor the extent of its irresistible progression nor the duration of this torrent. The war continues and spares nothing, even less the monetarist economists and the econometric models manufactured for the comfort of an inflation of 2% in the euro zone.

That is to say. Nor is it known when the war will end, much less can one assess the scale and scope of the shock waves, today still near the epicenter, that will sweep and sweep the world in this year and in the years to come.

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