Ukraine’s GDP could fall by up to 30% (i.e. if the war ends this year)

At the opening of the EBRD’s Annual General Meeting, which is being held in the Moroccan city of Marrakech, the institution published growth forecasts for the regions in which it operates: Eastern and Central Europe, Central Asia and Africa of the North, whose economies – together – are expected to grow by 1.1% in 2022.

In the case of Ukraine, the bank recalls that in March it initially forecast a 20% drop in the country’s economy but – after a review of the current situation – the value remained at 30% losses in expecting GDP to increase by 25% in 2023, counting on the end of the conflict and the start of reconstruction efforts in the territories affected by the military invasion of Russia.

Therefore, the EBRD warns that the forecasts published today may vary depending on the duration of the Russian military campaign, as well as the extent of the destruction and the number of refugees who intend to return to the country.

As for the Russian economy, the EBRD maintains a fall forecast corresponding to 10% and expects “zero growth” for 2023.

For Belarus, the financial institution forecasts a contraction of 04% of the economy by the end of the year.

The EBRD notes, however, that the forecasts for this year and for 2023 could evolve towards a worsening depending on the course of the war or restrictions on the export flows of gas and other Russian raw materials.

By region, the EBRD predicts for 2022 declines of 18% in the economy of Eastern Europe: 1.5% in the Caucasus and Armenia, 3.4% in Azerbaijan, 03% in Georgia, 01% in Moldova, in addition to negative values ​​(-30%) concerning Ukraine.

For Central Europe and the Baltic countries, the EBRD forecasts an overall increase of 3.2%: growth of 04% for Poland and 3.5% for Hungary.

Estonia and Latvia can drop by 1.5% and 02% in Lithuania.

In the case of Bulgaria, the EBRD estimates an increase of 2.6%, in addition to increases of 2.9% in Greece and 2.5% in Romania.

For North Africa, the EBRD forecasts overall growth of 2.5% with increases of 3.1% in Egypt, 1.9% in Jordan, 01% in Lebanon, 03% in Morocco and 2.5% in Tunisia.

In Turkey, the EBRD forecasts a 02% increase in GDP.

As for the Central Asia region, the EBRD forecasts an increase of 3.7% in all countries in 2022, with Turkmenistan being the country with the highest increase (06%) and Kyrgyzstan the one with the least increase ( 01%).

The bank warns of high inflation in the countries where it operates, which in March corresponded to 11.9%.

This is similar to what was recorded during the 2008 financial crisis.

“Oil prices are at high levels. Gas prices in Europe are above all time and are four times higher than in the United States, putting European producers at a disadvantage,” the report said.

The institution adds that many economies of the “EBRD regions” are “highly dependent” on gas and “energy production” and that many other regions of the Caucasus and the southern and western Mediterranean are highly dependent. wheat imports from Russia and Ukraine. .

The General Assembly of the EBRD which begins today in Marrakech will continue until Thursday with the authorities of the various European countries and North Africa.

In parallel, sessions on the war in Ukraine are planned, as well as meetings on the agro-food industry, the situation of the private sector in Africa and renewable energies.

The EBRD was founded in 1990, after the fall of the Berlin Wall, to facilitate the transition to a market economy in the countries of central Europe.

Since the 1990s, the EBRD has extended its influence to forty countries, with shareholders totaling 71 countries, the European Union and the European Investment Bank.

Read also: Women demonstrate in Kabul against the compulsory full veil

News by the Minute nominated for Marketeer Awards

THE Up-to-the-minute news is one of the nominees for the 2022 edition of the Marketing Awardin the category of digital media. Voting takes place until May 31.

To help us win, all you have to do is access the website of the initiative organized by the magazine commercialby clicking hereand complete the form by selecting Up-to-the-minute news in the category of digital media then formalize the vote. Thank you for your preference!

Always be the first informed.
Consumer’s choice for the sixth consecutive year and five-star award for online press.
Download our free app.

Apple Store Download

Leave a Comment